The Future of Express Entry - TOP 7 insights for the 2023 targeted draws
The Express Entry system is changing in the Spring of 2023 to encompass new targeted draws. We have known this was coming since Bill C-19 was proclaimed into law on June 23, 2022. But the real question everyone had been asking is…how exactly will Minister Fraser use these new broad sweeping powers? Who will be the winners and the losers? Which occupations will be in demand? Which will be out of luck? What is in store for the 100,000s of foreign students languishing in Canada?
Well, thanks to a very short-lived consultation period released by IRCC at the beginning of January 2023, entitled “Enhancing Express Entry through category-based selection to better meet Canada’s evolving economic needs” (it was opened for only a few meaningless days)….some of the mystery has now been revealed regarding what these Express Entry targeted draws may just look like. However, you need to read between the lines. What most people overlooked were the clues IRCC planted within the very questions they were asking people to respond to…..these clues revealed a ton of information on the direction the Minister is headed with targeted draws….let me share with you what I discovered.
This is my TOP 7 list of key insights on the future of Express Entry targeted draws in 2023.
1. Some candidates will win big…
Before we dive deep into the details, let’s face the facts - the Minister sees these targeted draws as the shiny new tool for addressing Canada’s acute labour shortages in key sectors of the economy. The old “no specified program” draws simply didn’t cut it in the past. So, what are these sectors and who will benefit the most? The answer lies within the Minister’s preamble to the consultation instructions:
…the Canadian economy continues to experience labour shortages in critical sectors as the global economy shifts toward greener, digital economies and automation… such as construction, healthcare, and in professional, scientific and technical services, which take longer to fill, given the need for specialized training.
…the most acute shortages are found in construction (trades), administrative and support services, waste management and remediation services, healthcare and social assistance, and other services.
With the introduction of category-based draws it is clear that the Minister will prioritize candidates with work experience and specialized training in one of the above-mentioned sectors. Whether you have high CRS scores or not, work experience and education in these targeted areas can help to significantly increase your chances of getting drawn in one of the category-based Express Entry draws.
What this means is that even if you had no hope of getting an ITA before, you now have a shot and may get drawn under one of the targeted draws regardless of your CRS score. Just think about it - it is now hypothetically possible that a candidate with relevant work experience and CRS scores in the range of 430 or lower could receive an ITA, while candidates with CRS scores of 480 or above and no in-demand experience are shut out.
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So, if you have experience or education in one of the key sectors identified by the Minister - Congratulations! Things could be looking up for you. Regardless of your CRS score, make sure you have properly submitted your profile and given yourself an opportunity to win the targeted draw lottery.
2. No Program-Specified Draws will continue
Many Express Entry applicants are afraid that with the rollout of targeted draws it will spell the end for “No Program Specified Draws”. However, don’t panic just yet despite the fear-mongering that is rampant across social media. IRCC has confirmed that targeted draws are not going to replace open draws completely but instead will comprise only a portion of overall ITAs. It is clear that the Minister intends to use all of the tools in his toolbox to ensure ITAs are extended to a diverse background of candidates …including those with high human capital. So if after reviewing the list above, you realize you do not have any experience in the Minister’s targeted industries, do not lose hope, you still have a shot.
IRCC has confirmed that:
Category-based selection will comprise a portion of overall invitations to apply, and invitations based on the Comprehensive Ranking System scores and individual programs will remain.
What does this mean for you? Simply put, keep working on increasing your CRS score regardless of your experience in one of the targeted industries. Let’s face it, CRS scores will continue to be a critical component to receiving an ITA. It is almost certain that within the targeted draws, CRS will continue to play a role as not everyone with relevant experience will be drawn in a single round of invitations. There will be winners and losers even within the targeted draw. Just like the current system, those with CRS scores above the cut-off will receive an ITA and those below will be out of luck. Therefore, it is critical that steps be taken to maximize your CRS scores.
There are hundreds of websites out there (mine included) offering secret tips on how to increase your CRS score. However, in reality, there really is no secret. Anyone with a Provincial nomination, Canadian job offer, work or study experience in Canada, is going to have a leg up on those that do not. But for many, getting Canadian experience is simply not an option. So, the key is to focus on maximizing everything that you actually have control over….such as your English and French language abilities, additional foreign education, and work experience. If you are still under 29 years old, you may just consider pivoting your education and work experience to better align with known areas of skill shortage in Canada. This approach can maximize your chances of not only getting an ITA, but the possibility of securing a Canadian job offer as well.
3. Bright future for international students with education in key sectors
Let’s acknowledge the elephant in the room - despite overseas visa offices doing everything in their power to refuse Canadian study permit applications, the Minister of Immigration and the Canadian Government love international students. Canada is extremely interested in attracting and retaining international students because they are the best candidates for successful integration into the Canadian labour market.
Remember that although Canada is generally a free-market economy, there is a heavy social welfare component that costs billions of dollars each year to administer. Universal healthcare and quality public education are not cheap. Without a robust economic immigration program, Canada’s aging workforce and the accompanying loss of tax revenue would cause the country to go bankrupt trying to maintain the quality of social programs we enjoy today. Economic immigrants are essential to the future success of Canada and it is undeniable that international students make some of the best economic immigrants.
IRCC has repeatedly affirmed that one of its key priorities is to help international graduates transition to PR status.
In 2021, over 88,000 international graduates transitioned to permanent residence through Express Entry, an increase of 80% since 2017. Nevertheless, [IRCC] has continued to hear from stakeholders on the desire to expand and simplify pathways to permanent residence for this group.
Because IRCC sees international students as a potential cure to Canada’s critical labour shortages we can fully expect that grads with education and work experience in the key targeted sectors, set out below, will have the greatest chance of getting an ITA from within the international student ranks:
skilled trades,
health,
science,
technology,
engineering, and
mathematics.
As I previously alluded to in “My TOP 6 List of Key Take-aways from the Minister’s Report: Strategy to Expand Transitions to Permanent Residency”, international students must be strategic in how they choose their programs of study. It may no longer be enough to simply enroll and graduate from any DLI in Canada with a PGWP option. Instead, students must look for programs within the in-demand targeted sectors and ones for which labour shortages are a reality now and projected to be so in the next few years.
Let me share a little nugget of insight from the consultation instructions that further emphasizes how important education in key sectors can be for international students:
In your responses to this consultation, you may wish to address issues such as…whether education and/or Canadian work experience must be recent, whether international students with limited to no Canadian work experience should be considered for eligibility…
This statement suggests that the TR to PR Pathway of 2021 may not be dead after all. Over the years, I have found that when IRCC asks for feedback on a proposed program or policy, it is often a simple formality and they are already well on their way to rolling things out. However, the reason this comment is so intriguing to me is that the consultation is directed toward the Express Entry program which specifically requires a minimum of one year of skilled work experience for entry. So, it is highly likely that IRCC is considering a resurrection of the TR to PR Pathway in some form so as to fast-track international grads to PR with education alone, and possibly no work experience, in key sectors suffering acute labour shortages. IRCC has already implemented aggressive policies to allow some international students to work full-time during their studies, so a resurgence of a program similar to the TR to PR Pathway would come as no surprise.
4. FSW candidates may have a shot despite low CRS scores
In recent days, IRCC surprised us with a never before FSW-Only Draw on February 2, 2023. Given the large numbers of CEC candidates languishing in the Express Entry pool, this came as quite a shock to everyone. However, the CRS score for the lowest-ranked candidate remained very high at 489. So what does the future hold for FSW candidates with low CRS scores? Simply put, the new categories-based draws could open up a brand new opportunity for candidates with work experience in key sectors and lower CRS scores. Yes, much speculation has occurred about these occupation-specific draws for the past eight months. However, few people understand what a game changer this could be for those that have languished in the Express Entry pool for years with little hope of securing an ITA because of the astronomically high rounds of invitations.
Based on the Minister’s instructions to stakeholders in the January 2023 consultation, we know that IRCC fully intends to prioritize skilled workers and international students with relevant work experience in key sectors in Canadian. However, we must not discount the fact that in-demand occupations are “in-demand” for a reason. It is because there are insufficient workers in the labour force, currently in Canada, to fill all of the necessary jobs now available and into the future. Essentially, even with the hundreds of thousands of foreign workers currently in Canada, there will still be a need for FSW candidates with foreign work experience in in-demand occupations. So it may be possible for an FSW candidate with foreign healthcare experience to be granted an ITA despite having human capital substantially lower than the current CRS trends for FSW candidates.
The Minister has the ability to restrict rounds of invitations to a particular industry or in-demand NOC, or he could decide to leave the categories as they are, but instead modify the CRS criteria to grant additional CRS points for declared work experience in the same industries or NOC codes identified on his chosen list. The powers granted to the Minister under Bill C-19 are very broad leaving him with little restraint on the manner in which those powers are exercised.
One final thought regarding the competition for international labour…Canada is not the only country experiencing skill shortages in some industries. Where global labour market shortages are most critical, the hunt for skilled workers becomes a frenzy. It is possible that a day could be reached when IRCC completely drains the pool of candidates having experience in specific occupations. If that happens, overall CRS scores would become virtually irrelevant. We could see a recurrence of what happened with Draw #176 on Feb 13, 2021 when IRCC effectively extended an ITA to every CEC candidate within the Express Entry Pool, with the lowest rank candidate having a CRS score of 75.
So the key takeaway for FSW candidates is that regardless of CRS score, and provided you are eligible under the FSW program, create a profile in the Express Entry pool and keep it active at all times. One day you may just open your email inbox to find an early Christmas present from IRCC.
5. Parlez-vous français?
In the consultation instructions, IRCC acknowledged that current levels of Francophone admissions remain insufficient to counter the demographic decline of Francophone speakers in minority communities outside the Province of Quebec. As such, Canada is actively looking for ways to attract more French speakers and has not ruled out doing targeted draws inviting candidates with a combination of proficiency in French language and experience within the in-demand sectors or occupations. It could even be possible for IRCC to hold a Francophone-only Express Entry draw where French speaking candidates with the desired language ability could be included in a targeted draw all their own.
Interestingly, IRCC shared the following short list of specific occupations that have experienced acute labour shortages where the ability to speak French was a critical component.
French teachers,
healthcare workers, and
professionals in the tourism and services industry.
If you’re working in, or have work experience in one of these occupations and don’t know French yet - please, don’t waste your time! Enroll in French language classes and start working on your French. It is clear that now, and long into the future, French language proficiency will be a decisive factor in whether individuals with lower human capital will be successful.
Also, note that IRCC specifically addressed the widespread difficulties recruiting bilingual workers in rural and remote areas. In simple terms, you have a better shot if you’re destined to a typically non-French speaking community (outside of Quebec). If you are French-speaking, consider looking for job opportunities in small touristic communities in English-speaking provinces. The ability to speak English and French can be a game changer. With work experience in service industries and a strong French and English language foundation, you can not only increase your chances of getting an ITA, but may also be able to secure an LMIA-based job offer from one of these employers which can give you a massive leg up on your competition.
6. Look for opportunities in Rural Canada
I have said this before, and I will say it again, attracting more people to rural Canada is one of IRCC’s top priorities. There are a number of provincial programs in place that allow pathways to Permanent Residence for candidates who are willing to work and settle in rural or northern communities. However, there is nothing stopping the Minister from providing incentives to candidates currently living in, or destined for, rural communities in Canada. These incentives can come through adjustments to CRS criteria for CEC candidates who are currently working in rural Canada, or specifically targeting a combination of skill shortages and desired destination of residence in Canada in a targeted draw.
Popular and overpopulated destinations such as Vancouver and Toronto are very competitive and have oversaturated labour markets. Instead, by pursuing work in rural Canada, candidates can maximize their chances for PR because there may be multiple pathways available in addition to Express Entry.
7. Be strategic and flexible
The days of high CRS scores being enough alone to guarantee an ITA are coming to an end. With the new era of targeted draws just about upon us, candidates must be strategic, persistent, and ready to adapt their strategy in order to get an ITA. When it comes to immigrating to Canada, you have to start planning early. Candidates who build out their strategy years in advance will be far more likely to punch their ticket to Canada, than those who treat immigrating to Canada as a backup plan or an afterthought.
For some, learning French may be absolutely critical to securing an ITA. For others, switching career paths early on to study, or gain work experience in one of the in-demand industries, could do the trick. But for most candidates, they must be flexible and willing to adapt. Maybe it will require them to move to a rural community and take a job in a new industry. But regardless of the options available, there is no one-size-fits-all plan. Yes, if you tailor your strategic plan around the insights I’ve shared, you are going to be leaps and bounds ahead of other Express Entry candidates.
The ideal Express Entry candidate in a strategic draw world
During the many Express Entry consultations I have with clients all over the world, a common question I am asked is to identify what an ideal Express Entry candidate would look like. In today’s looming strategic draw world, my ideal candidate would have the following characteristics:
Minimum of three years of work experience in a targeted industry outside Canada OR one year in Canada in a rural community
Completion of a Master’s Program outside Canada OR a minimum two-year program of study in Canada, in a targeted industry
Bilingual in English and French at a minimum CLB level 9
In-Demand Job offer from a Canadian Employer in a rural community
Close to 29 years of age
Never before has Express Entry been more competitive. Don’t fall into the trap of following what everyone else was doing last year or even last month. The game has changed. Instead, separate yourself from the crowd and utilize the information I have shared to chart your own unique path to realizing your dream of Canadian PR.
If you are wondering if Express Entry is right for you, and how to go about building a strategic plan that maximizes your chances of success, the immigration lawyers at Holthe Immigration Law are here to help. Join the thousands of other people that have benefitted from the advice and guidance we provided in making their dream a reality.
